Determining factors of high social connotation crimes in the metropolitan region. A logistic model analysis

Abstract

Initiatives only focused on police control actions, while raising the perception of security, do not act on the multifactorial causes of a dynamic and complex social problem. Therefore, prevention and control measures must be developed, which require the active, synergistic and coordinated participation of all the actors involved in public safety in order to reduce risk factors that result in criminal activity. This research is intended to measure the incidence of spatial, temporal and contextual factors that characterize the communes of the Metropolitan Region of Chile (2014) as regard the probability of occurrence of specific crimes in the context of all recorded cases of greater social connotation. Among the main contributions of this study - which is based on more than 300 thousand police cases - is the individualization of the communes most exposed to specific crimes. Analytic information is also provided in order to change the paradigm of groundless patrols, by one based on a model that allows the optimization of police resources.