After the Arab Spring: an opportunity for scenarios

Abstract

Since the start of the Arab Spring, the Middle East has been the scene of conflict that resonates far beyond its borders. This paper will argue that the upheavals in the Middle East cry out for a long view and that scenario development in theory is well positioned to give it and has an interest in doing so. However, the paper will also suggest that scenario methodology for informing policy decisions for the contemporary Middle East is underdeveloped. The paper will outline some of the methodological challenges. It will also suggest improvements and alternative uses for scenarios for the Arab Spring Middle East.