Shedding new light on residential property price variation in England: A multi-scale exploration

Abstract

Exploring the nature of spatial and temporal variation in house prices is important because it can help better understand such issues as affordability and equity of access to housing. In the UK, research on house price variation has been hindered by a lack of extensive data linking the prices of properties at different places and times to their physical attributes. This paper addresses this gap through using a new dataset linking Land Registry Price Paid Data to attribute data from Ordnance Survey and Energy Performance Certificates datasets. The new data are used to investigate spatial disparities in England’s house prices at four geographical scales (from local authority to individual address) between 2009 and 2016 – a period of sustained price rises after the global financial crisis of 2008. We selected two housing price measures for comparison, namely transaction price and the house price per square metre. Multilevel variance components models are used to estimate variation in the two house price measures at four different spatial scales and we compare spatial disparities in the two measures at these different scales. Our results suggest that accounting for the size of properties by using house price per square metre offers a more accurate picture of house price variation than does the use of transaction prices at the same geographic scale. Spatial disparities in house price per square metre are more apparent and are seen to be clustered at local authority level and highly clustered at Middle Layer Super Output Area level, with imbalances increasing during this eight-year period and highlighting the strong and growing influence of London on the national housing market.