Climate change impacts on maize and soybean yields in Zambia

Abstract

Projected changes in temperature and rainfall directly threaten the overall agricultural crop production system in Zambia where 75% of agricultural production is rainfed. This study investigates the effects of future climate on maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] yields using relatively high spatial resolution downscaled climate data in Central and Eastern Zambia. The Agrometshell model was applied to simulate historical and future crop yields. To account for the effects of climate change on crop yields, global climate models (GCMs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used. Most yield functions were significant with R2 values >.7 with p