Predictive validity of the Identification of Seniors at Risk-Hospitalized Patient tool for identifying functional decline

Abstract

Background: Functional decline (FD) affects 30-60% of hospitalized older people. The first step in preventing FD is the identification of patients at risk. Objective: To determine the predictive validity of the Identification of Seniors at Risk-Hospitalized Patient (ISAR-HP) tool for assessing the risk of FD in hospitalized older people. Methodology: Longitudinal, observational, and prospective study using a sample composed of 101 patients aged 70 years or older. Functionality was assessed using the Katz Index (KI) at baseline, hospital discharge, and 3-month follow-up and the ISAR-HP tool. FD was de-fined as the decline in at least one item of the KI. Results: The receiver operator characteristic curve of the predictive model, at a cut-off of ≥ 2 points, showed an area of 0.7 (p ≤ 0.01). The sensitivity, specificity, pos-itive and negative predictive values were 93.9%, 36.7%, 44.9%, and 91.7%, respectively. Conclusion: The ISAR-HP is a valid risk-stratifica-tion tool for assessing FD in hospitalized older people, which can be used in clinical practice.