Will digital financial development affect the effectiveness of monetary policy in emerging market countries?

Abstract

Whether digital finance should be included in the quantitative framework of monetary policy in emerging market countries has been widely discussed by scholars. However, the current research just focused on a single format of digital finance, lacking comprehensive analysis at the overall level and the refinement of general rules. Therefore, this paper constructed a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the impact of digital finance on the effectiveness of monetary policy and its heterogeneity, taking China as the representative of emerging market countries. The empirical test showed that (1) Although the total index of digital finance had a negative impact on economic growth, the interaction between digital finance and monetary policy was significantly positive. This indicated that the “moderating effect” of monetary policy was beneficial to digital finance in promoting economic growth, which was confirmed from the subindexes level as well. (2) The development of digital finance had obvious characteristics of the “polarization effect” and the “spatial spillover effect”. Meanwhile, there was a significant regional difference in the “moderating effect” of monetary policy. (3) In terms of control variables, consumption level, fixed capital formation level, and fiscal policy all had a significant positive impact on economic growth, with a positive “spatial spillover effect”. Whereas, the impacts of COVID-19 and export level on economic growth were both negative. Hence, coping with the challenges of COVID-19 and revitalizing exports were important breakthroughs for emerging market countries to recover the domestic economy. Finally, based on the empirical conclusions, this paper proposed three suggestions. First, monetary policy should be strengthened to intervene in the development of digital finance. Second, digital financial development should be integrated into the quantitative framework of monetary policy. Third, it is essential to build a “double pillar” policy framework to compensate for the shortage of monetary policy.