Congruous or Conflicting? Great Power Configurations in the Balkans

Abstract

Once again power configurations in the Balkans are changing. Rarely has any great power in the past exclusively controlled the Balkans. But neither has the Balkan Peninsula managed to avoid great power competition. Still, the European Union (EU) has made significant inroads of late toward overseeing this volatile region. Presently, however, a resurgent Russia, an increasingly influential Turkey and the financial crisis spreading across Europe are serving to rekindle the political contest over the Balkans and its future. What can configurations of great power interaction between the EU, Russia and Turkey tell us about the Balkans today? Is the region facing renewed instability and fated to be mired in a zero-sum struggle, as realist thinkers such as Mearsheimer already in 1990 successfully predicted? Or perhaps regional configurations create an incentive for great powers to cooperate? On the basis of geopolitical analysis, this qualitative case-study compares foreign policies and strategies of each great power toward the other, as well as their foreign policies toward the Balkan states. What emerges from this analysis is fading confidence that the European Union can work in concert to maintain peace and stability in the Balkans without antagonizing Russia and Turkey. Even as secondary actors, Russia and Turkey have powerful cards to play should they determine—or even conspire—to undermine European policies.