Appendix D: Probability Distributions

Abstract

The stationary birth-only, or Yule-Furry, process for rooted binary trees has been analysed with a view to developing explicit expressions for two fundamental statistical distributions: the probability that a randomly selected leaf is preceded by N nodes, or "ancestors", and the probability that two randomly selected leaves are separated by N nodes. For continuous-time Yule processes, the first of these distributions is presented in closed analytical form as a function of time, with time being measured with respect to the moment of "birth" of the common ancestor (which is essentially inaccessible to phylogenetic analysis), or with respect to the instant at which the first bifurcation occurred. The second distribution is shown to follow in an iterative manner from a hierarchy of second-order ordinary differential equations. For Yule trees of a given number n of tips, expressions have been derived for the mean and variance for each of these distributions as functions of n, as well as for the distributions themselves. In addition, it is shown how the methods developed to obtain these distributions can be employed to find, with minor effort, expressions for the expectation values of two statistics on Yule trees, the Sackin index (sum over all root-to-leaf distances), and the sum over all leaf-to-leaf distances.