East Asian Winter Monsoon Impacts the ENSO-related Teleconnections and North American Seasonal Air Temperature Prediction

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key feature for seasonal weather and climate prediction in the extra-tropics since related sea surface temperature anomalies induce precipitation anomalies that generate poleward propagating Rossby waves and teleconnections. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is driven by processes originating over the Asian continent and, to a lesser degree, by ENSO-related tropical convection. EAWM also strongly affects convection and precipitation patterns over the western tropical Pacific by cold air outbreaks reaching equatorial latitudes. Hence, one can expect a modulating effect of EAWM on the generation of Rossby wave trains related to ENSO. By increasing the convective heating over the western Pacific, strong EAWM strengthens the Pacific Walker circulation, and weakens (strengthens) the El Niño (La Niña) related effects on the extra-tropics via a modulation of the Pacific North America teleconnection pattern. Our results indicate that, for seasonal prediction over North America, along with ENSO the variability of EAWM should also be taken into account. The climate anomalies over the North America for the same phase of ENSO are significantly different for strong and weak EAWM.