Fuzzy Catastrophe Model of Project Selection Based on Strategy

Abstract

Projects are often considered as the carrier to implement strategic objectives, which helps bring the strategy into force. With constrained resource, it is quite difficult to execute all available projects, so selecting suitable projects with high strategy coincidence is very important for the enterprise. As a multicriteria risk decision-making problem, the evaluation index system for strategic projects is constructed by the balanced scorecard. Then based on the expectation data, catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics, a fuzzy catastrophe progress method is presented to obtain the evaluation parameter of projects by performing recursive calculation, and select the optimal to execute in terms of the ultimate catastrophe membership. Avoiding the determination of index weights, the proposed fuzzy catastrophe model can effectively reduce the negative influence of the perception and subjective judgement. The experiment shows the proposed comprehensive model is feasible and could provide a valuable reference for enterprises to make more advisable decisions.