How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update

Abstract

Old age and adult mortality have over the last decades enjoyed a remarkable decline throughout the western world, posing the researcher with new challenges and opening up fresh horizons in life expectancy trends. The recent drop in mortality may be largely traced to the unexpected decline in cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers. Thus it could be hoped that in the future these trends would continue and extend to include other causes where, for the moment, little change has occurred. Such a hypothesis is all the more realistic in view of the fact that recent changes are linked, not just to advances in more efficacious medical treatment, but also to a growing awareness on the part of the general public regarding questions of health and the crucial role played by life style and behaviour. These include improved dietary habits, for example, a better attitude to risk factors, particularly to smoking, alcohol abuse, dangerous driving, etc. This awareness, which prevails among more recent, well-informed and better educated cohorts, not only produces immediate results, but maybe even more so in the future, should this spare coming generations the accumulation of risks which were and continue to be the burden particularly of older cohorts.