Lehrerurteile im Lebensverlauf: Valide Prognose oder Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

Abstract

In a longitudinal study of former German high school students between age 15 and 43 it is shown that teachers' evaluations with prognostic claims may influence the students' educational decisions by shaping their success expectations. Initially false teacher evaluations may work like a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' in the sense of Merton (1948). Because of the path dependency and cumulation of educational and occupational career processes they still indirectly affect the occupational prestige at the age of 43. Finally, the following analysis offers prospects in terms of fruitfully connecting the longitudinal perspective of life course research to the action-theoretical perspective of a theory of subjective expected utility.