Effect of sexual transmission on the West Africa Ebola outbreak in 2014: a mathematical modelling study

Abstract

The outbreak of the Ebola virus has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in the affected areas, and Ebola virus RNA has been found in the semen of the survivors after 9 months of symptom onset. However, the role that sexual transmission played in the transmission is not very clear. In this paper, we developed a compartmental model for Ebola virus disease (EVD) dynamics, which includes three different infectious routes: contact with the infectious, contact with dead bodies, and transmission by sexual behaviour with convalescent survivors. We fitted the model to daily cumulative cases from the first reported infected case to October 25, 2014 for the epidemic in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. The basic reproduction numbers in these countries were estimated as 1.6726 (95%CI:1.5922–1.7573), 1.8162 (95%CI:1.7660–1.8329) and 1.4873 (95%CI:1.4770–1.4990), respectively. We calculated the contribution of sexual transmission to the basic reproduction number R 0 as 0.1155 (6.9%), 0.0236 (2.8%) and 0.0546 (3.7%) in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the transmission rates caused by contacts with alive patients and sexual activities with convalescent patients have stronger impacts on the R 0 . These results suggest that isolating the infectious individuals and advising the recovery men to avoid sexual intercourse are efficient ways for the eradication of endemic EVD.