Modeling geospatial events and impacts through qualitative change

Abstract

This paper presents a qualitative formal framework to model the impact of an event. An event could be a forest fire or a flood, for example, that results in a discernable change such as a reduced vegetation height. This framework provides a qualitative classification of impacts in order to reason about events and their impacts. The underlying conceptual model distinguishes between immediate and delayed impacts. Based on this distinction, a set of basic types of impacts are differentiated, in particular abrupt and gradual impacts. We analyze how the temporal relation between an event and an impact can be used to capture combinations of impact types, called evolving impacts. To link event-impact relations spatially, this work introduces the concept of qualitative impact maps that represent the extent of an impact type. The combination of qualitative impact maps with event-impact inference rules enables the identification of events that are likely to underlie these impacts. The application potential of this approach is demonstrated via a case study based on vegetation change and event data for a nature reserve near Melbourne, Australia. This study shows how the model can support decision making for planning and management in nature reserves. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.