Multi-response approach to improving identifiability in model calibration

Abstract

In physics-based engineering modeling, two primary sources of model uncertainty that account for the differences between computer models and physical experiments are parameter uncertainty and model discrepancy. One of the main challenges in model updating results from the difficulty in distinguishing between the effects of calibration parameters versus model discrepancy. In this chapter, this identifiability problem is illustrated with several examples that explain the mechanisms behind it and that attempt to shed light on when a system may or may not be identifiable. For situations in which identifiability cannot be achieved using only a single response, an approach is developed to improve identifiability by using multiple responses that share a mutual dependence on the calibration parameters. Furthermore, prior to conducting physical experiments but after conducting computer simulations, in order to address the issue of how to select the most appropriate set of responses to measure experimentally to best enhance identifiability, a preposterior analysis approach is presented to predict the degree of identifiability that will result from using different sets of responses to measure experimentally. To handle the computational challenges of the preposterior analysis, we also present a surrogate preposterior analysis based on the Fisher information of the calibration parameters.