On world religion adherence distribution evolution

Abstract

Religious adherence can be considered as a degree of freedom, in a statistical physics sense, for a human agent belonging to a population. The distribution, performance and life time of religions can thus be studied having in mind heterogeneous interacting agent modeling. We present a comprehensive analysis of 58 so-called religions (to be better defined in the main text) as measured through their number of adherents evolutions, between 1900 and 2000, - data taken from the World Christian Trends (Barrett and Johnson, "World Christian Trends AD 30 - AD 2200: Interpreting the Annual Christian Megacensus", William Carey Library, 2001): 40 are considered to be "presently growing" cases, including 11 turn overs in the twentieth century; 18 are "presently decaying", among which 12 are found to have had a recent maximum, in the nineteenth or the twentieth century. The Avrami-Kolmogorov differential equation which usually describes solid state transformations, like crystal growth, is used in each case in order to obtain the preferential attachment parameter introduced previously (Europhys Lett 77:38002, 2007). It is not often found close to unity, though often corresponding to a smooth evolution. However large values suggest the occurrence of extreme cases which we conjecture are controlled by so-called external fields. A few cases indicate the likeliness of a detachment process. We discuss a few growing and decaying religions, and illustrate various fits. Some cases seem to indicate the lack of reliability of the data, but others some marked departure from Avrami law. Whence the Avrami evolution equation might be surely improved, in particular, and somewhat obviously, for the decaying religion cases. We point out two major difficulties in such an analysis: (1) the "precise" original time of apparition of a religion, (2) the time at which there is a maximum number of adherents, both information being necessary for integrating reliably any evolution equation. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Tokyo.