Methodological proposal for assessment and adaptation in oil industry plants in Brazil's coastland

Abstract

This work presents a methodological proposal for medium-term integrated planning and management of extreme natural risks and technological risks, focusing on events of coastal flooding caused by sea level rise (SLR). The research site contemplates private oil industry facilities, located in Redonda Island, Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Guanabara Bay suffers interaction with extra-tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic, where disasters, floods and coastal erosion need to be foreseen and managed properly. Under extreme meteorological-oceanographic conditions, a framework of predictive systems for risk management that involves climatic and environmental issues promoting greater capacity and responsiveness are necessary. In Brazil, the work is justified by the lack of methodological tools ad hoc for assessment and adaptation of coastal structures to face global change vulnerabilities, making them resilient and integrated into the natural coastal systems, and also to the emergency and responsiveness public and corporate systems' plans and programs. Using software ArcGIS 9.3, simulation scenarios of sea level elevation and flooding impacts were elaborated, whose boundary conditions considered the predictions of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Stern Report, in addition to the syzygy tides and storm surges that occurs in the bay. The development of the methodology culminated in: the assessment of vulnerabilities of the industrial infrastructures; prior knowledge of flooding from altimetry tracks; the estimation of losses and costs due to physical property damage; the elaboration of thematic maps of adaptive measures and proposed structural interventions to decision making; and the need to prepare a regulatory framework to ensure integration with the plans and programs of public and enterprise systems. The application of the methodology can ensure the continuity of the company's activities to some level of flooding on the island, or to promote the search for new alternatives of production, storage and logistics. © 2012 WIT Press.