Trend and Variability Analysis of Rainfall Series and their Extreme Events

Abstract

Rainfall series and their corresponding extreme event processes are analysed in order to study the evolution of their mean value and variability. Two broad statistical approaches are used, one based on inference of the entire time series and the other on modelling the extreme event process. The performance of two precipitation indices, SPI and percentiles, has been compared using long, medium and short time scales. We present the results corresponding to Huesca and Murcia rainfall records, two markedly different locations in Spain.