Lifetime estimation based health index and conditional factor for underground cable system

Abstract

In this paper, a lifetime estimation method for underground cable systems is proposed by combining a health index (HI) and conditional factor (CF). The underground cable system consists of underground cable, joint, termination, manhole, and duct bank. The HI is an indicator to indicate the actual condition of underground cable components and systems whereas the CF is used to indicate different operating stresses of the system under different operating conditions such as percentage loading, electrical stresses, laying structure, environment, etc. The actual technical data as well as historical operating and testing records are applied. The weighting and scoring method with the analytical hierarchy process are used to classify an importance of underground cable components, testing methods, and criteria used in the HI and CF calculation. The annual calculated HIs are plotted to investigate the lifetime trending curve by using a polynomial function. The degradation curve based on calculated CF is estimated by using the Weibull distribution function. Finally, the remaining life of the underground cable system is determined by matching the lifetime trending curve with the degradation curve. Ten practical underground cable systems supplying power in a high voltage power delivery system are evaluated with effective results. The lifetime of the underground cable system can be successfully estimated.