Information sources about hydrogeological disasters: The role of trust

Abstract

One issue particularly relevant in cases of risk of flooding and landslides caused by specific conditions of the weather, is the ability of citizens to take the right decisions on the basis of different information sources to which they have access. In this paper we describe some simulative experiments showing how a population of cognitive agents trusting in a different way three sources of information (institutional source, first neighbors source, their own perception), can make decisions more or less suited to the several weather patterns. The complexity of decisions is based on the fact that the agents differently trust the various sources of information which in turn may be differently trustworthy. In our simulations we analyze some interesting case studies, with particular reference to social agents that need to wait others in order to make decision.