Late twentieth century rapid increase in high Asian seasonal snow and glacier-derived streamflow tracked by tree rings of the upper Indus River basin

Abstract

Given the reported increasing trends in high Asian streamflow and rapidly increasing water demand in the Indian subcontinent, it is necessary to understand the long-term changes and mechanisms of snow- and glacier-melt-driven streamflow in this area. Thus, we have developed a June-July streamflow reconstruction for the upper Indus River watershed located in northern Pakistan. This reconstruction used a temperature-sensitive tree-ring width chronology of Pinus wallichiana, and explained 40.9% of the actual June-July streamflow variance during the common period 1970-2008. The high level of streamflow (1990-2017) exceeds that of any other time and is concurrent with the impact of recent climate warming that has resulted in accelerated glacier retreats across high Asia. The streamflow reconstruction indicated a pronounced reduction in streamflow in the upper Indus River basin during solar minima (Maunder, Dalton, and Damon). Shorter periods (years) of low streamflow in the reconstruction corresponded to major volcanic eruptions. Extreme low and high streamflows were also linked with sea surface temperature. The streamflow reconstruction also provides a long-term context for recent high Asian streamflow variability resulting from seasonal snow and glaciers that is critically needed for water resources management and assessment.