Marine protected areas do not buffer corals from bleaching under global warming

Abstract

Background: The rising temperature of the oceans has been identified as the primary driver of mass coral reef declines via coral bleaching (expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts). Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented throughout the oceans with the aim of mitigating the impact of local stressors, enhancing fish biomass, and sustaining biodiversity overall. In coral reef regions specifically, protection from local stressors and the enhanced ecosystem function contributed by MPAs are expected to increase coral resistance to global-scale stressors such as marine heatwaves. However, MPAs still suffer from limitations in design, or fail to be adequately enforced, potentially reducing their intended efficacy. Here, we address the hypothesis that the local-scale benefits resulting from MPAs moderate coral bleaching under global warming related stress. Results: Bayesian analyses reveal that bleaching is expected to occur in both larger and older MPAs when corals are under thermal stress from marine heatwaves (quantified as Degree Heating Weeks, DHW), but this is partially moderated in comparison to the effects of DHW alone. Further analyses failed to identify differences in bleaching prevalence in MPAs relative to non-MPAs for coral reefs experiencing different levels of thermal stress. Finally, no difference in temperatures where bleaching occurs between MPA and non-MPA sites was found. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that bleaching is likely to occur under global warming regardless of protected status. Thus, while protected areas have key roles for maintaining ecosystem function and local livelihoods, combatting the source of global warming remains the best way to prevent the decline of coral reefs via coral bleaching.