A Simulation Study on the Replacement of Neanderthals by Modern Humans in Europe: Implications of Climate Change, Cultural Diversification, and the Shape of the Continent

Abstract

The cause of the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans is one of the biggest mysteries in human paleontology. Some emphasize the importance of climate change and others the role of competitive exclusion. In the present study, the following set of hypotheses, which invokes both of these factors, is proposed: (1) Modern humans spread into Europe 40 k years ago because they acquired techniques to live in treeless environments. (2) Among hominids only modern humans accomplished this because of distinct innovative abilities. (3) Climate change caused drastic increase of the rate of cultural evolution and cultural diversity. (4) Neanderthals survived in the Iberian Peninsula exceptionally long because the peninsula was a glacial refuge for trees. (5) Neanderthals rapidly disappeared in places other than the peninsula because modern humans inhibited their re-expansion in warm periods. A simulation model is constructed to show that the replacement possibly occurred in a way consistent with all the above hypotheses (1)–(5).