Technology Foresight: The Evolution of the Shell GameChanger Technology Futures Program

Abstract

Long-term planning is becoming increasingly problematic for organizations. Technology developments are taking pace at a speed that makes it difficult to leverage traditional linear forecasting methods. Shell is one of the most advanced users of techniques that are designed to explore possible alternate future scenarios. This article ­outlines why Shell developed a program called Technology Futures to look at areas outside of energy for insights and innovations that provided new opportunities for its business. In addition, the article details the next iteration of the program called Future Agenda, which is the world’s largest foresight program, and the only one developed on an open source framework. Linking foresight to innovation in order to explore opportunities is an effective method of developing new high margin offerings.