Estimation of radiation-induced health hazards from a “dirty bomb” attack with radiocesium under different assault and rescue conditions

Abstract

In the case of a terrorist attack by a “dirty bomb”, blast injuries, external irradiation and the incorporation of radioactivity are to be expected. Departing from information about the radiological attack scenario with cesium-137 in the U.S. National Scenario Planning Guide, we estimated the radiological doses absorbed. Similar calculations were performed for a smaller plume size and a detonation in a subway. For conditions as described in the U.S. scenario, the committed effective dose amounted to a maximum of 848 mSv, even for very unfavorable conditions. Red bone marrow equivalent doses are insufficient to induce acute radiation sickness (ARS). In the case of a smaller plume size, the ARS threshold may be exceeded in some cases. In a subway bombing, doses are much higher and the occurrence of ARS should be expected. The health hazards from a dirty bomb attack will depend on the location and the explosive device. The derived Haddon matrix indicates that preparing for such an event includes education of all the medical staff about radiation effects, the time lines of radiation damages and the treatment priorities. Further determinants of the outcome include rapid evacuation even from difficult locations, the availability of a specific triage tool to rapidly identify victims at risk for ARS, the availability of an antidote stockpile and dedicated hospital beds to treat seriously irradiated victims.