Comparison of various strategies to define the optimal target population for liver fibrosis screening: A population-based cohort study

Abstract

Background & Aims: Liver fibrosis screening is recommended in high-risk populations, but the optimal definition of “high risk” remains to be established. We compared the performance of several risk-stratification strategies in a population-based setting. Methods: Data were obtained from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys Health 2000 and FINRISK 2002–2012. The Chronic Liver Disease Risk Score (CLivD) was compared to previously published risk-stratification strategies based on elevated liver enzymes, alcohol use, diabetes, fatty liver index, body mass index, and/or metabolic risk factors for their ability to detect either advanced liver fibrosis or incident severe liver events. Advanced fibrosis was defined as an Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELFTM) score >9.8 in the Health 2000 study (n = 6084), and incident liver events were ascertained from registry linkage in the combined FINRISK 2002–2012 and Health 2000 cohort (n = 26,957). Results: Depending on the cohort, 53%–60% of the population was considered at risk using the CLivD strategy (low-intermediate-high risk, excluding the minimal-risk category), compared to 30%–32% according to the other risk-stratification strategies. The CLivD captured 85%–91% of cases in the population with advanced liver fibrosis and 90% of incident severe liver events within 10 years from baseline. This compares to 33%–44% and 56%–67% captured by the other risk-stratification strategies, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence of liver events varied by risk-stratification strategy (1.0%–1.4%). Conclusions: Compared to previously reported traditional risk factor-based strategies, use of the CLivD captured substantially more cases with advanced liver disease in the population and may be superior for targeting further fibrosis screening.