Regional diffusion of military regimes in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Military dictatorships have been decreasing in number and concentrating in Africa. This paper analyses their spatial diffusion in sub-Saharan Africa between 1978 and 2014 applying a Bayesian SAR Probit regression. We find a significant and positive spatial coefficient only in the aftermath of the Cold War. This result suggests that once the global order of the Cold War vanished, geography took back its role and regional factors became crucial in shaping the institutional landscape. The evidence is interpreted in light of the patron-client approach. Among covariates, a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military regime.