Modeling Urban Traffic by Means of Traffic Density Data: Istanbul Case

Abstract

The main goal of the proposed research is to perform a predictive modeling study on Istanbul’s traffic congestion estimation by using traffic density data. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) shared the data, which includes traffic density status according to 336 different routes in Istanbul, at the end of January 2020. Previous studies on the traffic problem in Istanbul have been limited due to a lack of data. Therefore, it is aimed to perform an initial study on predictive modeling for Istanbul’s traffic congestion forecast. As a preliminary result of the analysis, it is seen that the traffic density is low at 93% accuracy for all locations between 00:00–07:00 am. When the locations are examined for other hours, it is seen that there was no traffic density at some locations. In the planned study, intelligent modeling techniques will be performed with identifying out-of-routine situations in traffic flow. Advantages and disadvantages of predicted models will be discussed according to performance indicators such as RMSE and MAPE. The superior model will be selected according to these criteria and it is expected that preferred approach would be a starting point on future research for predictive forecast studies of Istanbul’s traffic congestion.