An Agent-Based Reliability and Performance Modeling Approach for Multistate Complex Human-Machine Systems with Dynamic Behavior

Abstract

A complex human-machine system (CHMS) consists of heterogeneous components with extensive human-machine interactions. CHMSs are typical multistate systems with the ability to adapt to disturbances such as machine failures. These characteristics must be considered comprehensively to accurately evaluate the reliability and performance of a CHMS. However, the existing literature scarcely considers both the reliability and performance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose an agent-based approach to model and evaluate a CHMS. First, a general agent-based modeling framework for a CHMS is generated by analyzing the structure and operations of a CHMS. Then, a dual-clock mechanism is introduced to describe the behaviors of the machine failures and human errors. Two environmental disturbance modeling methods are proposed based on the state transitions of the agent and random events. The methods to model the repair and reconfiguration behaviors are presented based on the contract network. A Monte Carlo-based method is developed to evaluate the reliability and performance of the CHMS simultaneously. Finally, a deck scheduling process for an aircraft carrier is used as a case study to verify the approach. The results show that the reliability and performance of a CHMS can be effectively evaluated.