Pluri-annual Water Budget on the Seine Basin: Past, Current and Future Trends

Abstract

The trajectory of the Seine basin water resources is rebuilt from the early 1900s to the 2000s before being projected to the end of the twenty-first century. In the first part, the long-term hydrological data of the Paris gauging stations are analysed beginning in 1885, highlighting the effect of anthropogenic water management on the Seine River discharge. Then a detailed water budget of the Seine basin is proposed. It quantifies for the first time the water exchanges between aquifer units and the effect of water withdrawals on river–aquifer exchanges. Using this model, the trajectory of the system is evaluated based on a downscaled climate reanalysis of the twentieth century and a reconstruction of the land use in the early 1900s, as well as the choice of a climate projection which favours the model that best reproduces the low frequency of precipitation. The trajectory is synthesised as average regimes, revealing a relative stability of the hydrosystem up to the present, and drastic changes in the discharge regime in the future, especially concerning the decreased amount of low flow and its increased duration. These expected changes will require the definition of an adaptation strategy even though they are rather limited in the Seine basin when compared to other French regions.