MLC-LSTM: Exploiting the spatiotemporal correlation between multi-level weather radar echoes for echo sequence extrapolation

Abstract

Weather radar echo is the data detected by the weather radar sensor and reflects the intensity of meteorological targets. Using the technique of radar echo extrapolation, which is the prediction of future echoes based on historical echo observations, the approaching short-term weather conditions can be forecasted, and warnings can be raised with regard to disastrous weather. Recently, deep learning based extrapolation methods have been proposed and show significant application potential. However, there are two limitations of existing extrapolation methods which should be considered. First, few methods have investigated the impact of the evolutionary process of weather systems on extrapolation accuracy. Second, current deep learning methods usually encounter the problem of blurry echo prediction as extrapolation goes deeper. In this paper, we aim to address the two problems by proposing a Multi-Level Correlation Long Short-Term Memory (MLC-LSTM) and integrate the adversarial training into our approach. The MLC-LSTM can exploit the spatiotemporal correlation between multi-level radar echoes and model their evolution, while the adversarial training can help the model extrapolate realistic and sharp echoes. To train and test our model, we build a real-life multi-level weather radar echoes dataset based on raw CINRAD/SA radar observations provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, China. Extrapolation experiments show that our model can accurately forecast the motion and evolution of an echo while keeping the predicted echo looking realistic and fine-grained. For quantitative evaluation on probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), critical success index (CSI), and Heidke skill score (HSS) metrics, our model can reach average scores of 0.6538 POD, 0.2818 FAR, 0.5348 CSI, and 0.6298 HSS, respectively when extrapolating 15 echoes into the future, which outperforms the current state-of-the-art extrapolation methods. Both the qualitative and quantitative experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, suggesting that it can be effectively applied to operational weather forecasting practice.