Flash drought as captured by reanalysis data: Disentangling the contributions of precipitation deficit and excess evapotranspiration

Abstract

Flash droughts—uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system—are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story, for land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heat waves), anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness), and other meteorological anomalies. In this study, the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation in the Northern Hemisphere are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET through relationships diagnosed from the reanalysis data; under this treatment, an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and illustrate how ET anomalies for some droughts are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. While ET is found to have an important impact on flash drought production in the central United States and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heat wave–related drought, and while this impact does appear stronger during the onset (first several days) of flash droughts, overall the contribution of ET to these droughts is small relative to the contribution of precipitation deficit.