Quantum technology hype and national security

Abstract

Technology hype is an important concept in business, marketing, and science and technology studies, but it is rarely related to security studies. What is technology hype? How does it relate to national security? And to what effect? This article examines rational and performative perspectives on technology hype as either a kind of exaggeration or expectant discourse. Adopting the latter view, I compare and contrast hype cycles with threat inflation and securitization theory. I then sketch my own theoretical propositions about technology hype as being common in national security, with variable degrees of acceptance, familiar content, and significant consequences. A case study on quantum technologies provides proof of concept. I find ample evidence of hype over quantum computers, communications, and sensors; audience acceptance in the national security community varies with familiarity; and consequential decisions appear to follow. While cyclical expectations suggest the need for caution when citing quantum technologies in support of quantum approaches to international relations, a middle-range theory about technology hype provides useful insight into security practice.