Financial estimates against investors’ preferences: anchoring, denial and spillover effects

Abstract

This experimental study investigates how the characteristics of an estimate in a sensitivity disclosure and the level of threat it presents to investors’ preferences interact to influence investors’ risk judgments. Firstly, I predict and find that variation in an estimate affects not only investors’ judgment on a related issue but also their future judgments on an unrelated issue. Secondly, I predict and find that investors are more sensitive to variations in an estimate when information contained in the estimate presents less threat to their preferred conclusions than when it presents greater threat. Finally, I predict and find that investors perceive more uncertainty regarding the association between the disclosed risk factor and the estimated financial reporting item in the estimate when the information presents greater threat.