Climate change and winter wheat management: A modelling scenario for South-Eastern England

Abstract

Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response to increases in temperature alone. CERES-Wheat was then constrained to assess the crop performance under water-limited production scenarios with different soils, and the results show that crop grain yield actually increases, largely due to CO2 fertilisation leading to increased rates of photosynthesis. Different management practices (planting dates and nitrogen application) were applied to find the best adaptation strategies. In general, 'early' sowing (10th September) had the highest simulated yield, and 'late' sowing (10th November) the lowest. For the soils tested, the highest and sustained crop production was obtained from Hamble soils (silt loam) compared with either the Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding nitrogen and other fertilisers would likely be necessary to take full advantage of the CO2 fertilisation effect and to compensate, in some cases, for yield losses caused by climate change where water shortage becomes serious.