Inference from non-probability surveys with statistical matching and propensity score adjustment using modern prediction techniques

Abstract

Online surveys are increasingly common in social and health studies, as they provide fast and inexpensive results in comparison to traditional ones. However, these surveys often work with biased samples, as the data collection is often non-probabilistic because of the lack of internet coverage in certain population groups and the self-selection procedure that many online surveys rely on. Some procedures have been proposed to mitigate the bias, such as propensity score adjustment (PSA) and statistical matching. In PSA, propensity to participate in a nonprobability survey is estimated using a probability reference survey, and then used to obtain weighted estimates. In statistical matching, the nonprobability sample is used to train models to predict the values of the target variable, and the predictions of the models for the probability sample can be used to estimate population values. In this study, both methods are compared using three datasets to simulate pseudopopulations from which nonprobability and probability samples are drawn and used to estimate population parameters. In addition, the study compares the use of linear models and Machine Learning prediction algorithms in propensity estimation in PSA and predictive modeling in Statistical Matching. The results show that statistical matching outperforms PSA in terms of bias reduction and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and that simpler prediction models, such as linear and k-Nearest Neighbors, provide better outcomes than bagging algorithms.