A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification

Abstract

The authors have carried out verification of 590 12-24-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-oriented scheme. The latter captures the richness associated with the relationship of forecasts and observations, providing insight into strengths and weaknesses of the forecasting systems, and showing areas in which improvement in accuracy can be obtained. The analysis of this single forecast element at one lead time shows the amount of information available from a distributions-oriented verification scheme. In order to obtain a complete picture of the overall state of fore-casting, it would be necessary to verify all elements at all lead times. The authors urge the development of such a national verification scheme as soon as possible, since without it, it will be impossible to monitor changes in the quality of forecasts and forecasting systems in the future.