Malaria and the incidence of COVID-19 in Africa: an ecological study

Abstract

Background: It has been shown that stimulation of innate immunity may provide temporary protection against a variety of infectious diseases. Malaria has been shown to induce a robust innate immune response. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that if the cumulative number of cases diagnosed with COVID-19 per 100,000 population was correlated with the prevalence of malaria in African countries where both malaria and COVID-19 were prevalent. Methods: In this ecological study, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of malaria were compared in 53 African countries. A negative binomial regression analysis with the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 as the dependent variable, and the human development index (HDI) and the prevalence of malaria, as independent variables, were used. Results: The mean cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 522 cases per 100,000. Each 0.1 unit increase in HDI was associated with 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval 1.8–3.1) increase in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19. Prevalence of malaria was also independently associated with the cumulative incidence; each 10% increase in the prevalence was associated with 28% (10–41%) decrease in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19. Conclusions: Malaria might protect people against SARS-CoV-2 through the stimulation of innate immunity. Stimulation of the innate immune system could be the first line of defense in the pandemic preparedness arsenal.