Sst warming in recent decades in the gulf stream extension region and its impact on atmospheric rivers

Abstract

The sea surface temperature (SST) front in the Gulf Stream (GS) extension region is important to synoptic variations in atmosphere. In winter, large amounts of heat and moisture are released from the SST front, modulating the baroclinicity and humidity of the atmosphere, which is important for extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers (ARs). In this study, the variation of SST in the North Atlantic in winters since 1981 is investigated using satellite and reanalysis datasets, and a 23-year (1997 to 2019) warming trend of SST in the GS extension region is detected. The increase of SST is mainly distributed along the SST front, with more than 2◦ C warming and a northward shift of the SST gradient from 1997 to 2019. Connected with the SST warming, significant increases in turbulent heat flux and moisture release into the atmosphere were found along the ocean front. As a result, baroclinic instability, upward water vapor flux and AR occurrence frequency increased in recent decades. Meanwhile, there was an increase in extreme rainfall along with the increase in AR landfalling on continental Western Europe (especially in the Iberian Peninsula and on the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea).