A tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Yimin River annual runoff in the Hulun Buir region, Inner Mongolia, for the past 135 years

Abstract

Based on the relationships between the regional tree-ring chronology (RC) of moisture-sensitive Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and the monthly mean maximum temperature, annual precipitation and annual runoff, a reconstruction of the runoff of the Yimin River was performed for the period 1868-2002. The model was stable and could explain 52. 2% of the variance for the calibration period of 1956-2002. During the past 135 years, 21 extremely dry years and 19 extremely wet years occurred. These years represented 15. 6% and 14. 1% of the total study period, respectively. Six severe drought events lasting two years or more occurred in 1950-1951, 1986-1987, 1905-1909, 1926-1928, 1968-1969 and 1919-1920. Four wetter events occurred during 1954-1959, 1932-1934, 1939-1940 and 1990-1991. Comparisons with other tree-ring-based streamflow reconstructions or chronologies for surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. Power spectrum and wavelet analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual runoff variation in the Hulun Buir region and surrounding area could be associated with large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and sunspot activity. © 2012 The Author(s).