Sistemas agroflorestais como estrategia de adaptação aos desafios das mudanças climáticas no Brasil

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of agroforestry systems (AFS) as an adaptative measure to climate change in Brazil. A treatment-effects model (Propensity Score Matching) was developed. We identified the main determinants of the use of AFS and if the municipalities in which this technique is used are less vulnerable to climate change. The results showed that socioeconomic variables (land ownership, financing options, access to information and technical assistance) and agronomic variables (water resources availability and soil quality) influence the adoption of agroforestry systems in Brazilian municipalities. Climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) also play an important role in the use of these systems, which confirms their role as an adaptative strategy. It was also concluded that the AFS have the potential to improve the Brazilian agricultural performance due to the fact that the land value tends to be higher in municipalities where these systems are used. Thus, the AFS can make the agricultural sector less exposed to the negative effects of climate change in both the present and in future scenarios.