Assessing the economic value of El Niño-based seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe

Abstract

This study demonstrates the potential value of seasonal forecasts to smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe-the majority of whom often suffer severely from drought impacts. Using simulation models to compare crop yield performances of farmers with and without forecasts, results indicate that: during a "drought year", farmers with forecasts (WF) record higher yield gains (28 %) compared to those without forecasts (WOF); during a "neutral year" WF farmers obtain higher yield gains (20 %) than those WOF; however, during a "good year", results show no yield gains as WOF farmers perform better. This suggests that during a good year, forecasts may not have a significant impact. Using gross margin analysis, results show WF farmers realizing higher returns (US$0.14/ha) during a drought than WOF farmers who net a negative return (-US$0.15/ha).To conclude, El Niño-based seasonal forecasts could play an important role as loss mitigation measures particularly during a drought.