A Comparison of Models for the Forecast of Daily Concentration Thresholds of Airborne Fungal Spores

5Citations
Citations of this article
11Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

Abstract

Aerobiological predictive model development is of increasing interest, despite the distribution and variability of data and the limitations of statistical methods making it highly challenging. The use of concentration thresholds and models, where a binary response allows one to establish the occurrence or non-occurrence of the threshold, have been proposed to reduce difficulties. In this paper, we use logistic regression (logit) and regression trees to predict the daily concentration thresholds (low, medium, high, and very high) of six airborne fungal spore taxa (Alternaria, Cladosporium, Agaricus, Ganoderma, Leptosphaeria, and Pleospora) in eight localities in Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from 1995 to 2014. The predictive potential of these models was analyzed through sensitivity and specificity. The models showed similar results regarding the relationship and influence of the meteorological parameters and fungal spores. Ascospores showed a strong relationship with precipitation and basidiospores with minimum temperature, while conidiospores did not indicate any preferences. Sensitivity (true-positive) and specificity (false-positive) presented highly satisfactory validation results for both models in all thresholds, with an average of 73%. However, seeing as logit offers greater precision when attempting to establish the exceedance of a concentration threshold and is easier to apply, it is proposed as the best predictive model.

References Powered by Scopus

Advantages and disadvantages of using artificial neural networks versus logistic regression for predicting medical outcomes

1452Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

AN AUTOMATIC VOLUMETRIC SPORE TRAP

1391Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Automatic construction of decision trees from data: A multi-disciplinary survey

814Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Cited by Powered by Scopus

Biodeterioration Risk Assessment in Libraries by Airborne Fungal Spores

0Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Comparative Analysis of Grass Pollen Dynamics in Urban and Rural Ireland: Identifying Key Sources and Optimizing Prediction Models

0Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Spectroscopic detection of bioaerosols with the wibs-4+: Anthropogenic and meteorological impacts

0Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Vélez-Pereira, A. M., De Linares, C., Canela, M. A., & Belmonte, J. (2023). A Comparison of Models for the Forecast of Daily Concentration Thresholds of Airborne Fungal Spores. Atmosphere, 14(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061016

Readers over time

‘23‘2402468

Readers' Seniority

Tooltip

PhD / Post grad / Masters / Doc 4

67%

Researcher 2

33%

Readers' Discipline

Tooltip

Agricultural and Biological Sciences 4

57%

Earth and Planetary Sciences 2

29%

Engineering 1

14%

Article Metrics

Tooltip
Mentions
Blog Mentions: 1

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free
0