An Agent Based Model to Estimate Lynx Dispersal if Re-Introduced to Scotland

Abstract

Re-introduction of Eurasian Lynx to Scotland is being considered. Work by others has provided an ecological rationale for reintroduction and trial re-introductions are proposed on the Scottish border. This paper presents an Agent Based Model which simulates the potential for individual lynx to successfully disperse from a release point, using movement rules derived from observation of wild lynx in Europe. Results suggest high mortality from road crossings could hinder effective dispersal. The model is used to suggest the strongest candidate release site based on dispersal with and without a road mortality effect. This occurs in the Galloway Forest Park. The model is built using open source tool Netlogo, the programming language is relatively straightforward and extensible so other life events and human interactions can be modelled. Movement parameters can easily be reset to explore other hypothesised movement patterns. This paper contributes to spatio-temporal understanding of lynx dispersal, via a dynamic visual representation of movement in an ABM. This may help appraise the case for re-introduction in a particular location as well as providing a discursive tool that may help to understand and resolve concerns of community stakeholders, which would aid development of suitable policies. Model code is available via online repository: https://github.com/DrIanPhilips/LynxABM.