Forecasting Bike Sharing Demand Using Fuzzy Inference Mechanism

Abstract

Forecasting bike sharing demand is of paramount importance for management of fleet in city level. Rapidly changing demand in this service is due to a number of factors including workday, weekend, holiday and weather condition. These nonlinear dependencies make the prediction a difficult task. This work shows that type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference-based prediction mechanisms can capture this highly variable trend with good accuracy. Wang-Mendel rule generation method is utilized to generate rulebase and then only current information like date related information and weather condition is used to forecast bike share demand at any given point in future. Simulation results reveal that fuzzy inference predictors can potentially outperform traditional feedforward neural network in terms of prediction accuracy.