Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Projection of Climate Change by FGOALS

Abstract

Long-term climate change projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6(RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios are standard core experiments of CMIP5. To assess the performances of FGOALS models in projecting future climate, the results of FGOALS projection under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are compared to the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of 37 CMIP5 models. The comparison indicates that the warming trends projected by FGOALS-g2 (FGOALS-s2) are generally weaker (stronger) than the MME of the CMIP5 models. This response is consistent with the lower (higher) climate sensitivity of FGOALS-g2 (FGOALS-s2). The projection of FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) is about 0.5 °C higher (0.75 °C lower) than the MME by 2,100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the cold bias of FGOALS-g2 relative to the MME is evident both in the tropics and at high latitudes. The overestimation of the warming trends by FGOALS-s2 is evident globally, except in the North Atlantic.