Child survival and changing fertility patterns in Pakistan

Abstract

In this paper we are speculating, based on available evidence of current trends in Pakistan, whether existing fertility patterns can be linked with the lack of changes in child mortality and whether future changes in fertility or those changes already under way are likely to influence child survival probabilities favourably? On the basis of the available evidence we also propose some policy suggestions. The most obvious lesson that emerges from the Pakistan experience is that there are severe detrimental costs of the very meager resources expended on the social sectors as compared to other sectors which manifest themselves through high fertility and infant child mortality. Pakistan ought to be forewarned to avoid the experience of Sub-Saharan Africa where due to the current economic crises faced by most of the African nations, the economic stabilisation packages prescribed are severely affecting the health and education sectors. These governments have had to sacrifice expenditure on social sectors which would erode advances made in bringing down child mortality rates in a very short time and despite economic hardships faced by these nations. Also a "compartmentalised' approach to the provision of family planning services and more recently towards child health (for example the Expanded Immunisation Programmes) may have limited value in achieving the respective goals of lowering fertility and child mortality. -from Author