LifeSim: A Lifecourse Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Millennium Birth Cohort in England

Abstract

We present a dynamic microsimulation model for childhood policy analysis that models developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the MillenniumBirth Cohort (MCS) in England, together with public costs and a summary wellbeing measure.The model is a discrete event simulation in discrete time (annual periods), implemented in R, whichprogresses 100,000 individuals through each year of their lives from birth in the year 2000 to death.From age 0 to 18 the model draws observational data from the MCS, with explicit modelling of only afew derived outcomes (mental health, conduct disorder, mortality, health-relatedquality of life, publiccosts and a general wellbeing metric). During adulthood, all outcomes are modelled dynamicallyusing explicit networks of stochastic process equations, with separate networks for working age andretirement. Our equations are parameterised using effect estimates from existing studies combinedwith target outcome levels from up-to-dateadministrative and survey data. We present our baselineprojections and a simple validation check against external data from the British Cohort Study 1970and Understanding Society survey