Predictors of mortality in heart failure patients with reduced or mildly reduced Ejection Fraction: The CASABLANCA HF Study

Abstract

Background: Heart failure (HF) poses a significant public health challenge throughout the world and Morocco. Our objective was to delineate the epidemiological characteristics of Moroccan patients living with chronic heart failure and to identify prognostic factors correlated with CHF mortality. Results: A total of 1344 patients participated in this study, with survival rates at 3, 6, and 10 years recorded at 75.2%, 60%, and 34%, respectively. During the follow-up, 886 patients succumbed, representing a mortality rate of 65.9%. A Cox regression model, utilizing baseline candidate variables, was developed to predict cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Predictors all of which had a P value less than 0.05 included age, left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) at commencement (< 35%), hypertension, male sex, anemia, creatinine levels, and the number of hospitalizations due to HF decompensation. Notably, the frequency of hospitalizations emerged as the most potent predictor of mortality, with an HR of 2.5 (95% CI [2–2.9]). Almost 90% of patients with three or more readmissions for HF decompensation experienced mortality by the follow-up’s conclusion. Conclusions: This study offers valuable insights into risk factors and clinical outcomes in HF patients in Morocco. Factors such as male gender, advanced age, a history of hypertension, lower systolic blood pressure, rehospitalizations for HF decompensation, low left ventricular ejection fraction, anemia, and elevated creatinine levels were associated with increased mortality. Medical and health services managers should be aware of the substantial burden and future challenges posed by HF in Morocco, prompting the adoption of multidisciplinary strategies for its management and care.