Direct Assessment of Uncertainty using Stochastic Flow Simulation

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to develop a technique for direct assessment of reservoir flow performance uncertainties. This is achieved via a single stochastic flow simulation that combines a model for local geologic uncertainty with a simple analog for the flow transfer function to estimate the joint probability distribution that characterizes the global uncertainty in flow performance. Our method provides the framework to go directly from local uncertainty, derived using simple spatial interpolation techniques, to flow uncertainty, skipping the intermediate steps of stochastic sequential simulation and not requiring any fine-scale flow simulations.